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000
ABNT30 KNHC 011149
TWSAT 
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT FRI OCT 1 2004
 
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

...SUMMARY OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES FOR SEPTEMBER 2004...

NOTE...MANY OF THE ESTIMATES OF WIND SPEEDS...DEATHS...AND DAMAGES
CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE...PENDING A
POST-ANALYSIS OF ALL AVAILABLE DATA.
 
FIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMED DURING SEPTEMBER.  ALSO...HURRICANE
FRANCES...WHICH FORMED IN AUGUST...HIT FLORIDA AS A CATEGORY 2
HURRICANE.

FRANCES FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE AND BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ON 24 AUGUST.  MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD...THE DEPRESSION BECAME A TROPICAL
STORM THE NEXT DAY AND A HURRICANE ON 26 AUGUST WHILE LOCATED IN
THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. STEADILY STRENGTHENING...FRANCES
TURNED WESTWARD ON 30 AUGUST.  FRANCES PASSED ABOUT 125 MILES NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO WITH WINDS OF 140 MPH ON 31 AUGUST...THEN IT TURNED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON 1 SEPTEMBER.  THIS BROUGHT THE HURRICANE NEAR
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON 2
SEPTEMBER WITH WINDS OF 145 MPH...CATEGORY FOUR ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  FRANCES TURNED NORTHWESTWARD AND
WEAKENED TO A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE AS IT PASSED OVER SAN
SALVADOR ISLAND LATER THAT DAY.  IT MOVED SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON 3-4 SEPTEMBER WHILE WEAKENING
TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE.  THE CENTER OF FRANCES REACHED THE
FLROIDA EAST COAST NEAR SEWALL'S POINT EARLY ON 5 SEPTEMBER...THEN
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLOIRDA PENINSULA
TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY ON 6 SEPTEMBER. 
FRANCES WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER FLORIDA...AND IT WAS
STILL A TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT MADE A FINAL LANDFALL NEAR ST. MARKS
FLORIDA LATER THAT DAY.  FRANCES MOVED GENERALLY NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...FINALLY DISSIPATING OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA ON 9 SEPTEMBER. SO FAR...FRANCES IS BELIEVED TO BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR 23 DEATHS.  IT LEFT A BROAD TRAIL OF DAMAGE THROUGH
THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

IVAN WAS A CLASSICAL LONG-LIVED CAPE VERDE HURRICANE THAT MADE TWO
LANDFALLS ALONG THE U.S. COAST AND REACHED CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH THREE
TIMES. IVAN DEVELOPED FROM A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED OFF
THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA ON 31 AUGUST. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY
STRENGTHENED AND BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON 2 SEPTEMBER...A
TROPICAL STORM ON THE 3RD...A HURRICANE EARLY ON THE 5TH...AND A
MAJOR HURRICANE LATER THAT SAME DAY. IVAN MOVED WESTWARD FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND PASSED OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
WHERE IT CAUSED CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE...ESPECIALLY ON
GRANADA. IVAN THEN MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN SEA PASSING JUST NORTH OF VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS
ANTILLES. IVAN REACHED RARE CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH WHILE OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY ON 9 SEPTEMBER AS IT MOVED TOWARD THE
ISLAND NATION OF JAMAICA. AS IVAN APPROACHED JAMAICA...IT WEAKENED
TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE LATER THAT DAY AS THE CENTER MOVED SLOWLY
WESTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLAND. AFTER PASSING JAMAICA...IVAN
BRIEFLY REGAINED CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH ON 11 SEPTEMBER WHEN THE
HURRICANE WAS SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ONCE AGAIN...IVAN
INFLICTED CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE...THIS TIME ON GRAND
CAYMAN ISLAND AS THE HURRICANE HEADED TOWARD WESTERN CUBA. IVAN
REMAINED AT CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH UNTIL EARLY ON 12 SEPTEMBER.
HOWEVER...BY EARLY ON 13 SEPTEMBER...IVAN ONCE AGAIN BECAME A
CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE FOR THE THIRD AND FINAL TIME. WESTERN CUBA WAS
SPARED THE BRUNT OF HURRICANE IVAN AS THE SMALL EYE MOVED THROUGH
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INSTEAD. FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...IVAN MOVED
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SLOWLY WEAKENED UNTIL IT
MADE ITS FIRST U.S. LANDFALL NEAR GULF SHORES ALABAMA AS A CATEGORY
3 HURRICANE EARLY ON 16 SEPTEMBER. AFTER LANDFALL...IVAN GRADUALLY
WEAKENED OVER THE NEXT WEEK WHILE MAKING A LARGE CLOCKWISE LOOP.
IVAN MOVED NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND EMERGED OFF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON 19 SEPTEMBER AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE
REMNANT CIRCULATION OF IVAN THEN MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST AND PASSED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO ON 21 SEPTEMBER. IVAN BECAME A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN
ON THE 23RD AND MADE ITS 2ND LANDFALL OVER EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA ON THE 24TH. IVAN FINALLY DISSIPATED INLAND OVER EAST
TEXAS LATER THAT DAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORMED FROM AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA
ON 29 AUGUST.  THE WEATHER AREA MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD FOR SEVERAL DAYS UNDER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS
BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ON 7 SEPTEMBER. 
EARLY ON 9 SEPTEMBER...THE DISTURBED AREA FORMED INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ABOUT 420 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. 
THE DEPRESSION MOVED SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN TURNED
SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER THAT DAY ABOUT 380 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

HURRICANE JEANNE ORIGINATED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE AND BECAME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON 13 SEPTEMBER WHILE LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  JEANNE MOVED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON THE 14TH WHILE
STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM.  IT MOVED SLOWLY OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON THE 15TH AND THEN SLOWLY OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI ON THE 16TH AND 17TH...ACCOMPANIED BY 
TORRENTIAL RAINS AND WINDS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE.  JEANNE BRIEFLY
BECAME A HURRICANE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE BUT THEN WEAKENED WHILE
INTERACTING WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.  JEANNE TURNED
NORTHWARD ON THE 18TH AND MOVED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AS A
TROPICAL STORM.  JEANNE DRIFTED NORTHWARD AND STRENGTHENED...
BECOMING A HURRICANE ON THE 20TH WHILE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST
OF FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS.  THE HURRICANE MOVED ALONG A SLOW
CLOCKWISE LOOP FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND STRENGTHENED TO A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE.  THE LOOP WAS COMPLETED BY
THE 23RD AND JEANNE BEGAN A TRACK JUST NORTH OF DUE WESTWARD.  ON
THE 25TH...JEANNES LARGE EYE DIRECTLY HIT ABACOS ISLAND AND THEN
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS WHILE STRENGTHENING
TO A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.  THE LARGE EYE MADE LANDFALL ON THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR STUART AS A CATEGORY THREE.  IT IS
NOTABLE THAT HURRICANE FRANCES MADE LANDFALL NEAR THIS SAME
LOCATION JUST 20 DAYS EARLIER AND ALSO MOVED OVER THE SAME ISLANDS
IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.  JEANNE WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA WHILE TURNING NORTHWARD. 
JEANNE WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION OVER GEORGIA AND RECURVED OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES ON THE 28TH AND 29TH ACCOMPANIED BY
HEAVY RAIN.  ON THE 30TH...JEANEE HAD BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL
FRONTAL LOW LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.  THE
DEATH TOTALS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI ARE NOT YET KNOWN
BUT ESTIMATES FROM NEWS SOURCES RANGE TO OVER 2000 DEATHS IN HAITI
FROM INLAND FLOODING.  ONE DIRECT DEATH WAS REPORTED FROM PUERTO
RICO AND TWO DIRECT DEATHS WERE REPORTED IN FLORIDA.  THE U.S.
DAMAGE ESTIMATE IS NOT YET AVAILABLE.

HURRICANE KARL DEVELOPED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE...BECOMING A
DEPRESSION ABOUT 670 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ON 16 SEPTEMBER. INITIALLY MOVING WESTWARD...THE CYCLONE TURNED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT BECAME TROPICAL STORM KARL ON 17
SEPTEMBER.  KARL THEN TURNED NOTHWESTWARD AS IT BECAME A HURRICANE
THE NEXT DAY.  KARL MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD ON
19-20 SEPTEMBER AS IT BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE.  MAXIMUM SUSTIANED
WINDS REACHED AN ESTIMATED 140 MPH ON 21 SEPTEMBER AS KARL TURNED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.  KARL TURNED NORTHWARD ON 22 SEPTEMBER AND
NORTHEASTWARD THE NEXT DAY WHILE SHOWING FLUCUATIONS IN STRENGTH. 
IT THEN TURNED NORTHWARD AND LOST TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ABOUT
935 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES ON 24 SEPTEMBER.

TROPICAL STORM LISA DEVELOPED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE...BECOMING A
DEPRESSION ON 19 SEPTEMBER ABOUT 645 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND A TROPICAL STORM THE NEXT DAY.  LISA MOVED
WESTWARD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THEN INTERACTED WITH ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING LISA FROM THE EAST.  THE
DISTURBANCE AND LISA LOOPED ABOUT EACH OTHER ON 22 AND 23 SEPTEMBER
UNTIL THE DISTURBANCE WAS ABSORBED INTO LISA'S CIRCULATION.  LISA
THEN CONTINUED WESTWARD ON 24 SEPTEMBER BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD IN
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  MOVING SLOWLY FOR SEVERAL DAYS...LISA
INTENSIFIED GRADUALLY AND AT MONTH'S END HAD WINDS OF 70 MPH AND
WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES WEST OF THE AZORES.

PRELIMINARY STATISTICS

NAME          DATES          MAX WIND  DEATHS   U.S. DAMAGE
                               (MPH)            ($MILLIONS)
-------------------------------------------------------------
H  FRANCES  24 AUG - 9 SEP      145      23         N/A
H  IVAN      2 -24 SEP          165      90         N/A
TD TEN       7 - 9 SEP           35
H  JEANNE   13-29 SEP           120     2000+       N/A
H  KARL     16-24 SEP           140
TS LISA     19 SEP-              70
-------------------------------------------------------------
N/A = NOT YET AVAILABLE

FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART/FRANKLIN/BEVEN/AVILA

 
$$



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